Bada could help Samsung gain 5% of market share by 2010-11

Samsung’s newly introduced software platform the OS, Bada, which is expected to be unveiled on 8-Dec in London is expected to be used in most of its low end feature phone. It is expected that close to 50% of these feature phones will be running Bada within 12-18 months.

The Bada does not seem capable to take on the Smartphones running likes of the iPhone and the Droid. However, the Bada appears very capable to develop apps and deliver Smartphone like features for the mid to low end feature phone user. The traditional feature phone producers like Nokia, Sony Ericsson and LG would feel the direct impact of the Bada.

The strategy of delivering Smartphone like capabilities via touch screen is yielding results as seen from the success of the Star and the Corby in 2009. These initial successes will be leveraged via the Bada to deliver a smartphone like apps ecosystem in 2010. With 100 million touchscreen phones by Samsung forecasted in 2010, the developer community should definitely look forward to the large potential market available.

Feature phones have been the core of Samsung’s business which has been seriously threatened by the uptick in adoption of smartphones.  The Bada strategy if executed properly could easily create a moat of applications developers which will help it differentiate its offering to the low-mid end feature phone buyer in both the developed and developing markets who either cannot afford a smartphone.

 Based on a model of the 2010 handset market we are conservatively estimating that Samsung can easily gain up to a 5% market share within the next 12-18 months. Sony Ericcson will face the biggest impact of the Bada followed on by LG and Nokia.